The renewable nature of the energy generated in Belo Monte and its insertion in the Amazon make combating climate change a strategic material issue for the company. Therefore, it is present in the analysis and decision-making processes of senior management.
Climate-related guidelines are part of our Sustainability Policy and the Superintendence of the same name is responsible for bringing to the Executive Board and the Board of Directors the developments of commitments, initiatives and actions that contribute to combating climate change.
Norte Energia’s climate strategy, in turn, advanced and in 2023 we started preparing the Plan for Decarbonization and Combating Climate Change, considering management, monitoring and data collection to assess GHG emissions. This will enable the definition of goals based on science and adhering to the commitments of the UN 2030 Agenda.
Weather conditions can impact the operation of Belo Monte, especially if they cause low flows in the Xingu River. A reduction in the water level would directly affect the power generation capacity of the project.
For this reason, in our Risk Matrix, we have identified the following risk factors in the context of climate change:
- Impacts on the flow of the Xingu River that are inconsistent with those predicted in hydrological studies that supported the generation and physical guarantee of the Belo Monte HPP;
- Operational limitation caused by environmental restriction resulting from climate change;
- Atmospheric discharges that affect the operation;
- Extreme floods or droughts that impact dams;
- Reporting aspects of climate risks that impact image and reputation;
- The multiple uses of water and the different interests related to this natural resource.
During 2023, the Aneel research, development and innovation project PD-07427-0222/2022, entitled “Characterization of extreme precipitation events in SIN basins and future projections based on climate change scenarios”, made progress towards its objectives of identifying, analyzing and projecting climate extremes in Brazilian river basins.
The project made progress in identifying climate extremes for the 115 river basins tributary to the hydroelectric plants that make up the SIN, specially focusing on the Xingu basin. By using Artificial Intelligence techniques, especially Machine Learning, as a support tool, the analysis covered natural factors such as the El Niño and La Niña phenomena, and anthropogenic factors, such as changes in land use and the construction of reservoirs.
By verifying the relationship between extreme flow and precipitation events, together with natural and anthropogenic factors, trends were identified in the flow series and land use. The most significant correlations were found between drought severity and minimum annual streamflow, indicating that a decrease in minimum natural streamflow is associated with an increase in extreme drought events. Furthermore, when considering the influence of anthropogenic factors, the analysis of the correlation between land uses, such as deforestation and the conversion of areas to agriculture, suggests that these changes are contributing to the reduction in flow in modified areas.